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by pfisch 3591 days ago
Well, if software developers are made redundant by AI then we have already transitioned to a new type of economy because virtually every other job has been replaced except service industry.

If we are in some impossible world where that isn't true then I would say they should maybe go into medicine, engineering or law I guess.

Your question is too open ended to answer really. I have like 10 follow up questions to understand the parameters of the original question.

2 comments

The question was meant as a thought exercise aimed at my fellow developers. I was hoping they would ask themselves, "What will I do once my field is disrupted?" I was hoping that they could feel a little empathy for others whose livelihood has been turned upside down.

(I'm not directly responding to you, just your points which are typical responses.)

The general response when faced with uncomfortable questions is to avoid facing it - a "it would never happen to me" sort of rationalization. Or it would be an "impossible world" where my field would be illuminated.

Take "go into law" for example: I think the recent unemployment rate for new law graduates is something like 25%. Medicine is another field ripe for disruption (except nursing maybe).

"Just get another job" is another popular "let's not really think about the unthinkable" response.

It seems like many "answers" to the disruption problem boils down to "let them eat cake" and I was hoping to break through that.

If you drive a taxi/vehicle as your job, then it has very obviously been in the works for years now that your job is going to see diminishing returns over time and you need to find a new angle.

I don't have sympathy maybe because I own a bootstrapped software studio and we are constantly pivoting and growing. We did ios/web contract work, now we mostly do video games on Steam. Guess what though, video games on steam is getting tougher so we are also pivoting to something else right now.

Life is change. There was once a time when you could just ply your trade for your entire life, and for some people that is still true, but that is not some inalienable right that is owed to anyone.

Businesses constantly have to be on their grind and don't just get some guaranteed paycheck, and no one is entitled to such a thing. You have to provide a service to people that you can exchange for money. If you are not really doing that then you are not just entitled to money.

Why do you think medicine is ripe for disruption ?

Unemployment rate for doctors is around 1%.

The acceptance rate for medical school in the usa is 40%.

developers and cabbies are welcome to retrain.

To me, cabbies are local government employees. Let the government that licenses them pay them, just like they pay teachers and cops. So I am fine with this subsidy.

Because of the tremendous shortage, as illustrated by that data. In fact home diagnosis apps were one of the first successful PC software products.
> I would say they should maybe go into medicine, engineering or law

There's already an AI lawyer:

http://www.rossintelligence.com/ http://www.techinsider.io/the-worlds-first-artificially-inte...

and Watson played doctor:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ibms-watson-cracks-medical-mystery-...