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by dadver 3592 days ago
>Everything about this auction is lined up to incentivize a scam.

Yes, however the contents of the free sample seems very real. Without having dug into the binaries it's hard to tell, but it's hard to imagine someone wrote this to scam 1 million BTC out of the net.

3 comments

Sure, but there's no incentive to hold anything back.

Let's say you break into a server and steal 10 vulnerabilities, from an organization (e.g. the NSA) who are never going to acknowledge how many vulnerabilities they had or were stolen.

If you want to get the most in the auction, the best thing you could possibly do is to release all 10 of your vulnerabilities for free, claiming that it's just a teaser, and that you have many more. Then you take in bids and disappear. It makes no sense to only release 2 or 3 and hold back the remainder; the unreleased ones are essentially wasted because they didn't actually contribute to any bidding activity: nobody knew they existed when they were bidding. That they exist at all is a happy surprise to the winning bidder, but with no further sales, customer goodwill isn't worth anything.

There's really no incentive to actually follow through on the sale at all. The only purpose of the "goods" to the seller is to attract bids, but with nobody to verify what's actually for sale, the best strategy is to use everything for what amounts to advertising, in the hope of gaining more attention and attracting more bids.

I wouldn't dump it all at once, if I were them, though. I'd do an initial release, and them some more once the initial bids (if there are any) slow down, and keep doing that over and over until the market is entirely worn out and all the vulnerabilities have been disclosed. That's the profit-maximizing strategy, I think.

With 1 million BTC on the line, you have a hard time imagining that someone would do this?

People do work for a lot less..

I'm curious if they (in lack of better English) didn't mean 1 million USD in BTC. 1 million BTC is -a lot of money-, even for a release of Equation Group material.
That's 6.3% of all Bitcoin currently in circulation. A crazy amount.
1,000,000 Bitcoin == 563,770,000.00 USD

https://www.google.com/search?q=1000000+btc+in+usd

Sort of... When trading that large a fraction of the whole pool of BTC, the trade itself would drastically alter the value of a BTC. To the point that I'd be surprised if someone could openly acquire that large number of BTCs before being priced out of the market.

The block chain makes it worse because everyone can see the progress of the buyer and there's no market maker with anywhere near this level of liquidity.

A private transaction of BTC wouldn't effect the market value of BTC. It is correct to say 1M BTC = 565M USD; the market price of BTC/USD is only effected when the BTC is sold on an exchange.
Almost no single entity has that much BTC (as of 2016 only ~15 million Bitcoins exist), to acquire it someone would have to aggregate the Bitcoins from many other entities by via buys on a Bitcoin exchange. This would cause a massive spike in the price of Bitcoin.

Interesting to note: there has been no new Bitcoin block for the last 1 hour 23 minutes. This happens from time to time, but it is a little suspicious.

See https://blockchain.info/

Yes.
Maybe it's the language? Given what I've read this seems real.

However, with that much money on the line (if that figure is correct), you could fake almost anything.

> Yes, however the contents of the free sample seems very real.

The only people who could verify if it's real are the Equation Group themself. For anyone else it's impossible to verify - it's just some names.

So: If it's real the Equation Group will bid - probably a lot. If it's fake no one will bid.

So it'll be easy to tell which it is.

> If it's real the Equation Group will bid - probably a lot.

Why? You have no guarantee what you're bidding for will remain private, and you don't want to give it legitimacy by bidding. Who's to say if it's real the Equation Group wouldn't bid, under the assumption that it's already out there and you have absolutely no guarantees that anyone you're dealing with would keep their word.

They would bid to try to track them, not to try to keep it private.
Please ignore; corrected below.

> So it'll be easy to tell which it is.

~~How can you tell how others have bid?~~

Wouldn't the Equation Group just hack their systems and erase the code?
Can they? The real world is not like a TV show - you can't just hack into any arbitrary system and expect you'll get in.

Some systems you can get into some you can't.