[doozy]

Supply and demand, the one thing economists get right.

You seems to be assuming the supply of software developers will keep outgrowing the demand for them. Why? I predict the exact opposite: As the developing world develops, local demand for software will keep outpacing global capability to create developers. I live in the developing world, I should know.

99% of people cannot play an instrument. 99% of people cannot draw. 99% of people cannot do math. 99% cannot develop software. And that's a conservative estimate.

Today's computers "Just Work", no one needs to know anything to use one anymore, and it shows. You find today people working as developers who would have a lot of trouble just using a computer from as late as 20 years ago.

Developers are getting dumber, not smarter. As abstractions have been piled upon abstractions actual programming skills have decreased. No one knows how to do anything anymore without an IDE to hold their hand and a web browser to look up everything. We've replaced the hacker with the hack.

Am I exaggerating? Try interviewing a few people for a developer position and see for yourself. The level of incompetence is astonishing. Degrees, experience or national origin seems to have no correlation whatsoever with their skills.