[hellogoodbyeeee]

A bubble is a more complex phenomenon than large price increases. A bubble is inflated by speculation that isn't rooted in anything except the rising price.

If rich foreigners are buying property to summer in because they like the weather, then not a bubble. If rich foreigners are buying property because the property has gained X% in price every year for the last ten years but they don't know anything about the specifics of the local real estate market, then more likely a bubble.

You also can't say something is a bubble until after it pops.

[mywittyname]

It looks like foreign buyers are also speculating. The difference is that it seems that foreign buyers are interest in long-term holding (instead of quick flips) and they are paying in cash.

So there's no risk of them being forced to sell at the bottom, like what happened to Americans, because there will be no 5/1 ARM that needs to be refinanced. Since these buyers paid in cash, so most of them will be able to weather a storm.

[skylan_q]

A bubble is inflated by speculation that isn't rooted in anything except the rising price.

It's been like that for the last 8+ years.

[hellogoodbyeeee]

You are trivializing how difficult it is to determine this. For example, is the empty mansion empty because someone is speculating with it or because a globe trotting billionaire forgot he bought it?

I'm sure there is speculation going on in the market, but we can't tell to what degree without polling the people buying real estate.

[vinceguidry]

Hence the reason for the second rule. You don't know what they're propped up on until they disappear.