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by rafaelferreira 3610 days ago
As another Brazillian, let me offer an attempt at a more distanced take on the matter. Roussef's impeachment proceedings are motivated by alleged budget manipulation. I don't think there are many who would say the maneuvers in question were 100% kosher, but the question of whether it is a sound basis for impeaching an elected president is not a simple one. Renowned legal scholars differ on this point.

In particular, it is clear the congress voted for her ousting due to a series of reasons unrelated to the allegations. One reason is the dismal state of the economy, likely due in no small part to Roussef's policy decisions. Another reason is that a majority of politicians, from all major parties, are facing serious corruption charges from a large, unprecedented, investigation conducted by the federal police, and the impeachment acts as a diversionaty tactic (there are recordings proving this is not a conspiracy theory). Lastly, there is the usual power struggle, that is fiercer and more complex in an environment with many political parties.

In all, a complex scenario that does not bode well for the immediate future of the Brazilllian democracy.

2 comments

I am not an economist, but it seems to me that Brazil's economic woes originated in the private sector. It simply became too leveraged in the boom years of Lula's government and couldn't handle the aftermath of the 2008 crash.

Dilma, on her part, gave in to the austerity camp (both left and right can't seem to give up this mentality) and made matters worse. In part, this was driven by inflation fear mongering by the media.

She only gave in to "austerity" after the federal government financial situation became unsustainable. Even then, the spending cuts were minimal.

The economy was already slowing down in 2011, and Roussef's government lowered interest rates and started giving subsidies to certain sectors and companies in order to stimulate economic activity. Some economists said this was a bad idea with potential disastrous consequences considering the global slowdown that was happening. IMHO, they were spot on. The private companies that went under since then were mostly the ones that were financed by public money. It was a failure of cronyism.

Exactly, austerity was applied only on the demand side (social spending and infrastructure), but the problem was precisely the demand side. The private sector didn't need more loans or tax cuts, they needed customers and profits.
Most of the budget is fixed by law, so those were pretty much the only areas where costs could be cut. Social and infrastructure spending was actually record high before the crisis hit, so to say everything was caused by austerity is misleading.
Well, I didn't say everything was caused by austerity. I said austerity made it worse.

Social and infrastructure spending might have been high, but I think they were actually insufficient. Politics and economics are too skewed to the right in Brazil. Look at our budget surpluses for the last few decades:

https://brasilfatosedados.wordpress.com/2014/12/07/3047-supe...

And then look at the UK's budget history:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-u_6bLBEcvus/VIL2bc4et6I/AAAAAAAAB7...

Even Thatcher had deficits all along.

> Politics and economics are too skewed to the right in Brazil.

This is the most absurd out of touch with reality statement I've read this week.

Brazil has 30+ parties almost all with "social" or "socialist" in their name. It's 50 shades of red down here.

> the question of whether it is a sound basis for impeaching an elected president is not a simple one. Renowned legal scholars differ on this point.

The fiscal responsibility law is a thing. Governors and mayors have been taken down from office for much less.

These "renowned scholars" that you mention are all tied to the workers party so their views are absolutely biased. Even the Bar order of Brazil, knowingly left leaning and pro-workers party has declared support for impeachment.

> In all, a complex scenario that does not bode well for the immediate future of the Brazilllian democracy.

How come? This is democracy in action. The law and the constitution are being followed to the letter.

Did Collor's impeachment undermine our democracy?

Impossible to address your first point without going into personal opinions, not fit for this forum.

About the other point, regarding the future of the country, I did not mean the impeachment going through would undermine our democracy - this sort of discussion has no place here. Just that the overall economical and political landscape is cloudy at best. Operation java-jato is likely a good thing, but a "Mani Pulite"-like outcome, with corrupt politicians passing essentially pro-corruption laws, and the ascension of an inept "strongman" (in italy it was Berlusconi) is something that can easily happen in the coming years.