Vietnam/Thailand are already in the supply chain (where do you think all your cameras/hard disks come from ?). India barely has a manufacturing sector.
Of course. But supply/demand economics means as wages/issues rise in China (i.e. trade war) the rest of Asia, which is rising quickly, picks up the slack.
China has scale, and the right value chains for certain things. But ultimately they are commodities. It's that hard to build simple factories and provide reliable electricity and cheap workers.
Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Vietnam etc. - there's a lot of people there waiting to pick up the slack.
The US does not import a lot of meaningful things from China.
China imports a lot of critical goods from the West, particularly Germany. Also - the trade balance is very lopsided.
A 'trade war' with China would be very painful for China, but the West would hardly skip a beat.
A) Consumer prices would rise a little bit.
B) Some plants (smart factories) would open in the US
C) Mexico would boon, and so would other areas in Asia.
In the long run, if other places pick up the slack, it would permanently damage China's competitive advantages - whereas Western nations would do just fine, save a few German tool makers.
China has scale, and the right value chains for certain things. But ultimately they are commodities. It's that hard to build simple factories and provide reliable electricity and cheap workers.
Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Vietnam etc. - there's a lot of people there waiting to pick up the slack.
The US does not import a lot of meaningful things from China.
China imports a lot of critical goods from the West, particularly Germany. Also - the trade balance is very lopsided.
A 'trade war' with China would be very painful for China, but the West would hardly skip a beat.
A) Consumer prices would rise a little bit. B) Some plants (smart factories) would open in the US C) Mexico would boon, and so would other areas in Asia.
In the long run, if other places pick up the slack, it would permanently damage China's competitive advantages - whereas Western nations would do just fine, save a few German tool makers.