| There are numerous problems with how prices relate to both costs and value. Pinch off ag in enough places, and you'll find it's got some underappreciated benefits. The alternatives to crops being raised in Calfornia aren't limited just to the lost ag revenue, but to the expense of transporting in food, the loss of fresh fruits and vegetables (California specialises in "table" crops (vegetables), fruit, and grapes especially, knock-on effects of worsened nutrition and reduced food quality, price increases resulting from withdrawal of California ag land, etc. Simply figuring out where you'd source that food from becomes problematic. Seattle is the only West Coast port with significant capacity and growing regions near it (Portland might do in a squeeze), plus growing area. There's no assurance that California crops, particularly greens and vegetables, would be suited to more northern climates and growing conditions, though adaptations might be made. And there's considerable room for adjustment in California's crop mix. No need to grow alfalfa in the desert, as a perennial crop, that's easy to fallow in dry years. Tree crops are multi-decadal investments, and will not simply fail to bear fruit without water, but will die -- one of the real crimes of the almond-planting spree around the state. You lose cropping flexibility. (There's a study I turned up some months back, either IRS or Federal Reserve, on tree crop asset lifetimes -- some bearing orange trees in Southern California are approaching or over 300 years old.) A straight market-based analysis does poorly. |