[isleyaardvark]

No offense, but this talk of a slow transition to democracy makes me think of Martin Luther King, Jr.'s Letter From a Birmingham jail:

"Lamentably, it is an historical fact that privileged groups seldom give up their privileges voluntarily. Individuals may see the moral light and voluntarily give up their unjust posture; but, as Reinhold Niebuhr has reminded us, groups tend to be more immoral than individuals.

We know through painful experience that freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed. Frankly, I have yet to engage in a direct action campaign that was "well timed" in the view of those who have not suffered unduly from the disease of segregation. For years now I have heard the word "Wait!" It rings in the ear of every Negro with piercing familiarity. This "Wait" has almost always meant "Never." We must come to see, with one of our distinguished jurists, that "justice too long delayed is justice denied."

We have waited for more than 340 years for our constitutional and God given rights. The nations of Asia and Africa are moving with jetlike speed toward gaining political independence, but we still creep at horse and buggy pace toward gaining a cup of coffee at a lunch counter."

[lhuang]

Dude. Has China opened up in the last 30 years? Is life better for the average Chinese? Has society not been more liberalized?

Tell me how China can democratize today without massive social upheaval? Tell me how this can be accomplished without throwing millions of Chinese back into poverty?

Thats the problem. China has 1.3 billion fucking people! The institutions in place are as fragile as the CCP (very). All sorts of social problems are on the verge ALL THE TIME of bubbling over.

Tell me how China can transition in the short-term before giving me these bullshit passionate appeals of "freedom" and "democracy".

Soundbytes sound GREAT. I personally LOVE them, but they add LITTLE to this debate.

[isleyaardvark]

Tell me how China can democratize tomorrow without massive social upheaval. Is it going to be another 30 years?

I don't think the Letter From a Birmingham Jail is a soundbite, nor a "bullshit passionate appeal". It's worth reading in full: http://www.africa.upenn.edu/Articles_Gen/Letter_Birmingham.h...

[lhuang]

I'm a big fan of MLK. He once said "the arch of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice"

You could argue that this applies to China. Change is long and slow, but there is progress being made. The situation today, even with its restrictions, is 100x better than it was 10, 20, 30 years ago. There is little reason to believe that it won't continue to improve.

The middle class is growing, people are increasingly more educated, these two things are major ingredients for democracy.

Why I think you're use of his Letter From Birmingham Jail is a "bullshit passionate appeal" is because the context that his letter was written in and the current Chinese climate are two different beasts.

Are my points that off? I'm surprised by how much opposition I've incurred on HN. The points I've raised and the arguments I've made are not radical. They are in fact widely accepted / endorsed by the majority of China scholars in the west.

[isleyaardvark]

The reason I use the Letter is the point MLK makes is that it will always be "too soon" for democracy. I can't think of a single democracy that had an easy or peaceful transition. About the closest I can think of is the short-lived "Prague Spring".

I'm not a complete stranger to China. I've heard this same slow progress argument before. 10 years ago, "China's making progress", 20 years ago, "China's making progress". There's that horse and buggy pace. If China had made that much progress, they'd be there already. People in China in favor of democracy should have support, and "you're not ready for it" isn't support.