| > roughly, those requiring an agent to rapidly gain an understanding of existing unstandardized systems So, basically, machine learning. Look, the tech is not there yet for an automated plumber, which is why it does not exist yet. 20 years ago we did not have the tech for automated driving but it finally got there. I see machine learning improve every year, These last few years have seen a huge rise of popularity of deep learning approaches. And since the DeepDream gizmo, we hear less people talking about how creativity can't be automated. Yes, in 20 years the tech will be here for a piece of software to figure out where the pipes must be in a house, make plans to test different hypothesis, plan a procedure of intervention, wiggle tubes together to make them fit without any other human instructions than "this tap does not work, go fix it". I have some supicions on what the correct way to go is, and am fairly confident that some other ways exist and that we will find one that will work. I can't comment on AGI from this point. It really depends on your definitions. Some make AGI an unachievable goal. Under common and reasonnable definitions, yes, we will be close by then but we already are not very far. And in my earlier comments I talk about 95% of unemployement just to cut some of the philosophical debate, but naturally I expect that we will reach 100% pretty quickly. |