[shadowsun7]

Hi lhuang, I'm not exactly sure that China's economic growth is correlated to the CCP's decisions. If the CCP makes a mistake or two (or even three, for that matter) - it's very likely that China would still continue growing anyway. I believe the country's reached a momentum where even stupid, really dumb decisions won't make a dent in its growth.

[lhuang]

This is certainly not the popular conventional view.

For the most part, the CCP and their decisions have been largely credited for China's stellar growth.

If you've ever been to China you'll quickly see why. If the government wants something done, its done. Case in point: 2008 Olympics, special economic zones, foreign exchange rate policies, etc.

Before kaifang (opening), China was ass-backwards. The CCP's sole claim to legitimacy is a bizzare positive-negative re-enforcement of two points:

1. Negative: China has been bullied by the world until the CCP came in 2. Positive: China is now an economic power because of CCP policies

The CPP uses these two points to bolster each other in linking CCP directly with nationalism so that pro-China = pro-ccp.

[shadowsun7]

For the most part, the CCP and their decisions have been largely credited for China's stellar growth.

That's the point I'm trying to make. The CCP and their decisions have been credited for China's stellar growth because the CCP say it is so. I get the impression more than anything else that the policies related to kaifang (funny how they use house in that word) is the primary cause for China's growth. Everything else the CCP does is secondary to just the plain economic power you unleash by opening up China to the global market.

It makes perfect sense, of course, for the CCP to lay claim to all the growth. But just because it's happening doesn't mean it's happening because of them. You don't take credit for your boat's speed; not when said boat is on a particularly fierce river. You may take credit for the control of said boat, though ... but I'm not sure if the CCP is efficient enough to do more than the minimum on that. Particularly so with the bureaucracy and the corruption that is endemic to the system at the moment.

If the river dries up (which it won't) the CCP will find out just how efficient their policies really are. And then - and only then - they can argue that they're responsible for economic growth. All I'm saying is that right now it just seems that they're protected from their mistakes by the sheer power of their growing economy; and therefore you can't argue that the CCP's policies are good simply because China's economy is good.

[lhuang]

I'm not sure your boat analogy applies in the world of economics.

Many nations have the ingredients for a robust economy; skilled labor, an abundance of resources, etc. but that doesn't guarantee anything.

A more apt analogy would be cooking. Simply having the right ingredients and throwing them in a pot won't magically transform them into a delicious dish. It takes a skilled chef to elevate individual ingredients to a combined dish.

There is a reason the Chinese economy has grown unchecked for the past 20+ years, surviving this recession and the 1997 asian financial crisis, while comparable economies took dives.

I could write paragraphs on why China's economic growth can be contributed to CCP policy but frankly there is enough documentation readily available on the web - much of it written by western academics.

To start, you can read about CCP policies on SEZs, exchange rate, NPL reform (once 20% of its total loan portfolio!!!), and its huge investments in green tech. The last of which is so much smarter than what our representatives in government are doing here in the states.