[Bartweiss]

For a while, they basically put the EU over a barrel via the refugee issue. In return for making some effort to restrain refugee flow, Turkey demanded the prospect of membership (bearing in mind that the talks alone were legitimizing, even without actual membership).

At this point, with EU membership looking less inviting and Turkey looking downright autocratic, it's hard to imagine it will happen. But the talks did their job, helping to shore up Erdogan's standing after Tahrir Square while he consolidated his power.

It's one more consequence of the slow. late reaction to Iraq and Syria: the EU had to sell out to anyone who could offer them some kind of damage control.