[James001]

The coup was never real to begin with. There have been so many holes in this narrative that it's like swiss cheese. Why did the military not fire on Erdogan when he was in their sights? Why did Erdogan even risk flying into Istanbul when he knew there would've been a significant chance of being shot down? The answer of course is that he knew there was no risk cause it was a fake coup to begin with.

[busterarm]

He wanted to consolidate his power and it was a really smart and ruthless move.

It kind of shuts down the potential for any real coup to happen.

[mtgx]

It probably will, but at the same time I also feel that these moves are "too sudden". Too many people are left without a job and hating Erdogan. And now they can organize. Unless Erdogan intends to kill them all, too, before they do that.

Putin did all of this on a much slower timescale, and gave the society time to adapt. Erdogan is not doing that. He's taking all the power all at once, and throwing out all the opposition out all at once, too.

This might backfire badly, although the "failed coup" certainly gives him a break to do all this, while the rest of the "normal" population is left confused and not knowing what to do and who to support next.

By the way, what's happening in Turkey is also an excellent real-world example of this:

"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."

That's why the "failed coup" was so critical in allowing him to do all of this. Even if there would've been some of those "good people" that would've opposed him (although not that much evidence of that in the past few years, it would seem), they are now paralyzed by this event.

Still, I believe that that this purge is way too sudden and way too large to not have an "opposite and equal reaction" coming back at Erdogan. But it may take a while to happen.

[busterarm]

I'd love to think that but I am also skeptical.

I've met a lot of Turkish students in New York over the last 10 years who have absolutely no plans to go back to their country ever.

The friends I had growing up whose parents were Turkish diplomats all have no plans to go back (their parents/family included) and from what I heard most of their colleagues found ways to stay as well.

I think many who would react are finding ways to leave instead.

[lettergram]

Perhaps in the short term.

The military in Turkey has been infiltrated for decades, but I'm sure some of the military are now just biding there time. It wouldn't be hard for even a few lone actors to take out the president. AKA two jet pilots and an informant.

[James001]

It was very Machiavellian.

Unfortunate that we're just hearing crickets on the international level though. It's a damn shame that a systematic rebuke of Erdogan's official narrative isn't anywhere in the mainstream media.

[mikeash]

This seems a little too conspiracy-ish to me. My feeling (and I am clueless and so probably wrong) is that the coup was real, but compromised from the start. The government knew it was coming, infiltrated it, and ensured it wouldn't pose a danger, but at its core I think it was real.

I guess that line gets blurry, anyway. If you find someone with a legitimate grievance and then encourage them to rebel and give them support, is that real or fake?

[shkkmo]

>If you find someone with a legitimate grievance and then encourage them to rebel and give them support, is that real or fake?

According to the FBI, that would be real.

[mikeash]

That same thought passed through my mind while writing my comment.

[ihsw]

One could say that Erdogan would be satisfied with martyring himself (Islamist to the end), but I highly doubt that. He believes he is Turkey and that it cannot stand on its own two feet without him, so I don't think he would risk his life intentionally.

Now he is digging his heels in.