[jbooth]

What's in the bill right now is pretty much set in stone -- the reconciliation process is just the process of merging the current house version with the previously passed version in the senate. The house doesn't trust the senate, so they set it up as an "all or nothing" reconciliation process -- so it's not going to change.

[Xichekolas]

My understanding is that they passed two things last night.

First was the Senate version of the bill, so that is basically the baseline now.

Second was an amendments package that "fixes" some parts of the bill. This package is what is going to the Senate for "reconciliation". The reconciliation process allows these amendments to be passed by a simple majority, provided there are no amendments added by the Senate (there is a risk the Republicans will try to add some). If the Senate passes the amendments as they stand, then they would also become law. If the Senate passes them with changes, then they would go back to the House for another vote.

Either way though, the reform voted on in the first part (the existing Senate version) is law.

[jbooth]

As I understand it, if the Senate changes anything, then the house passing the senate bill in the first place undoes itself. I'm not positive on the exact mechanics at this point because they were changed a couple times but I do know that the plan, as publicly pronounced by leadership in both houses, is that what's on paper now is what will be passed by the senate and signed by the president.

Don't count the sale till the money's in the bank and all that, but it seems like that's the most likely scenario at this point, they only need 51 / 59 democratic senators.

[Xichekolas]

According to CNN, Obama is going to sign the bill on Tuesday. The amendments are a totally separate bill, which will now be punted back and forth between the House and Senate, assuming the Senate doesn't just pass it as it stands.

Source: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/03/22/obama-to-sig...

[hga]

No, as noted elsewhere the late December Senate bill has been passed by the House and will become the law of the land tomorrow when Obama signs it (subject to challenges heard by the Supremes and for all we know a Constitutional Convention (yeah, yeah, but this is the first time I've heard it being really seriously discussed)).

Going forward, the Senate may end up passing nothing that amends it in addition to the other possibilities mentioned in this thread.