[dragonwriter]

> I am clearly correct that we did not hit peak oil back then

It may be the case that Thiel misinterpreted the economic consequences of peak oil and made bad bets based on it (particularly, there are no particular clear short-term market effects associated with peak oil beyond greater price volatility).

> The peak oil histeria from 5 or ten years ago was about the claim that we had already hit peak oil and pretty soon we wouldn't have enough petroleum to even grow food and we were all going to die.

The idea that the point that will be the peak in the smoothed long-term production curve is already past is not yet rejected, though there remains some doubt as to whether that point is in the recent past or not.

The idea that the peak would have any particularly clear set of clear short-term market consequences (and particularly anything like "we wouldn't have enough petroleum to even grow food" or "we were all going to die") has never been part of peak oil theory. Now, its clearly possible Thiel bought into some crazy idea like this secondary to peak oil theory, but that's a different issue than peak oil itself.