That is entirely unclear due to how the geopolitical landscape has been evolving. SpaceX's major innovations amount to cutting out corporate bureaucracy, cutting operating costs, and taking advantage of economies of scale not available to the last generation of aerospace manufacturers. SpaceX hasn't invested in science, they've invested in engineering and logistics that make them competitive with the current state of the art, up to and including their first stage recovery technology. For example, they use kerosene instead of liquid hydrogen, cutting out the huge manufacturing and storage cost, and because they're not subject to Congressional pork barreling, they don't have to split manufacturing across many states and districts. Whether they can make the leap from basic chemical propulsion to something that can really drop costs by an order of magnitude or two remains to be seen.