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by jabbernotty 3636 days ago
> the UK needs to trade with Europe, so they cannot ever really leave. Any deal done will end up looking like Switzerland

Thse statements are seemingly facts to you, but personally I am not sure how either could become reality.

I believe that the UK will have to leave, because the referendum is said to be binding. Going back on that would not be good for future voting or agreements. Swiss politicians did not, as far as I know, behave in any way similar to how some British politicians behave when it concerns the EU.

3 comments

Thank you for the correction!

I was misinformed by some of my local media that said it was binding.

"Het referendum gaat door en het is een bindend referendum." http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2016/02/19/brexit-afgewend-eu-berei...

I would say it is binding in a political sense, but not in a legal sense.
Do you think there woulnd't be a literal uprising if the government dismissed it ?
Switzerland held a referendum on stopping freedom of movement with the EU, which passed. The EU refused to even discuss it and the borders are still open and that's not going to change unless Switzerland wants to cancel all it's EU deals. Which isn't going to happen.

Legally, referendums in the UK are advisory only.

> the borders are still open

I'm not sure where you draw the line for this, but last time I went into Switzerland I had my passport checked at the border.

As you do coming in to the UK. Having your passport checked is not the same as having closed borders, EU citizens are still being allowed in.
That's because Switzerland isn't part of the Schengen area, not because of the referendum. The referendum was about immigration: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_immigration_referendum,_...

  That's because Switzerland isn't part of the Schengen area
That's wrong. Since 2008 Switzerland is definitely part of the Schengen area. While the UK is not.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area)

So if you fly in from the UK (or any non-Schengen country) you need t show a passport. As is the case in any other Schengen country.

Thanks for the hint, I rechecked and you are right, that part of my comment is outdated. The other part (about immigration) is current.
"All four European Free Trade Association (EFTA) member states – Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland – have signed agreements on association with the Schengen Agreement, even though they are outside the EU"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area

If you're not a citizen of a country in the Schengen area then you'll need a passport.

And random checks at the border are permitted (i.e. contraband, people trafficking).

Also a country is allowed to re-implement border controls in case of crisis.

> If you're not a citizen of a country in the Schengen area then you'll need a passport.

And how exactly do you show that you're a citizen of a country in the Schengen area without showing a passport?

When was that? I drove through coming from Italy a few week ago exiting at the French border on the North side and nobody looked at any passports.
You usually don't even have to show your passport when boarding a plane in Zurich as long you're flying within the Schengen area.

I think that's the case in most Schengen airports now.

What can happen is that you're checked by customs at the border. Since Switzerland is not in a customs union with the EU. Generally speaking, though, it's free flowing.

But there is no restriction to workers from UE, in this regard I think the OP talked about "the borders are open"
> Thse statements are seemingly facts to you, but personally I am not sure how either could become reality.

No, not at all. Things could turn out very differently, it's true. But I lean towards thinking that the countries involved will want to continue trading with each other and basically not rock the economic boat too much.

Many of the countries that remain in and strongly support the EU are likely to, in the immediate term, not give excellent trade terms to Britain to keep the perceived cost of leaving high to avoid encouraging leave movements in a couple of other members.
And then it's a poker game. How much are they willing to hurt their already lethargic economies to punish the UK? I reckon if all countries has a referendum, a fair few would vote to leave as well. It can't sit that well with people to punish the UK for leaving when there's a sizeable number of French, Dutch, etc, who want to leave as well.
Doing a deal which is positive for the UK will mean threatening the integrity of the EU (and all the potential economic chaos which could go with it).