[hga]

Military intelligence is inevitably oriented towards the needs of the military and in the US the needs of the particular branches who are calling the shots at any one point in time.

Our national political leadership needs higher level political intelligence, like "what's this foreign leadership likely to do?" and so on, in addition to what they can do (based on e.g. their military resources).

There's also a selection bias in your comment "What have they EVER gotten right?" We hear all about many of their mistakes, but by definition we don't hear about most successes until they're declassified many decades later.

[kingkongreveng_]

> There's also a selection bias in your comment

Please share all the slam dunks I'm unaware of.

> leadership needs higher level political intelligence

Subscribe to Foreign Affairs. The idea that you need a multibillion dollar agency to sound out the geopolitical landscape in today's world is absurd.

Let's be honest that their primary function is global agitprop and covert ops. Analysis is a bolt-on, and not better than what you can get in the private sector.

[hga]

You're leaving out the storied concept of spies, double agents, etc., who can provide unique windows into a foreign country. Plus help the propagation of disinformation (e.g. it's a lot more effective when you know what your enemy fears). If there's a place for them in our national intelligence infrastructure, where should that be?

On the other hand I'll certainly agree that CIA analysis is poor at best, and note that it's particularly subject to politics (e.g. see the 2007 "Iran stopped their nuclear weapons program" analysis (not sure if it was from the CIA but the point holds)).

I'd close with noting that covert ops have their place. E.g. in denying the Soviets effective natural gas compressors (and therefore foreign exchange) for their pipelines to Western Europe. Technology embargoes forced them to roll their own, and we fed them bogus info which resulted in very poor results (as I recall a lot of failures and only being able to ship 1/2 the gas they'd intended).