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by dragonwriter 3643 days ago
> Can someone explain what happens next?

People can guess, but there's a lot of uncertainty on some points.

> Will UK really leave the EU?

Most likely, as I understand it, the next British government will formally start the (at least) two year process of exiting the EU. In the short term, they are still in the EU.

> Will EU ask them to leave or just wait for UK to initiate the process?

As I understand, under the applicable treaty, the UK has to formally initiate the withdrawal process. The EU has asked them to do so without delay, which is what Cameron had promised before the vote, but Cameron has since said that he plans to leave that to the next PM.

1 comments

Cameron has since said that he plans to leave that to the next PM.

So he leaves a big mess to his successor?

> So he leaves a big mess to his successor?

I'm not a fan of Cameron (also, not British and don't have a particularly strong investment in this, though I tend to think Brexit was a bad idea for all involved), but I think there is a fair case to be made that leaving it to the next PM to trigger Article 50 is the right thing to do (promising an immediate trigger -- which was a scare tactic for the vote -- was a bad move.) Here's why: Article 50 provides a 2-year timeline for exit, and provides tht an exit agreement which modifies the default terms takes unanimous approval of the EU members. You want, as much as possible, to have continuous government with a clear mandate during that process so that you can effectively negotiate that agreement and not get stuck with the default terms.

Also, what if the new PM has to pass through general elections? You might end up having someone which promises to trigger article 50 and someone who does not. A second referendum.
> Also, what if the new PM has to pass through general elections?

That shouldn't be necessary (the Conservatives have an outright majority, so their new leader should be able to form a government), but, yeah, it would significantly complicate things (especially if Cameron had triggered Article 50 before leaving.)