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by ProfChronos 3645 days ago
Based on IPO stock price ($15) and market cap ($1.23Bn) and Twilio's revenue run rate around $150M, so that's x8.2 for Revenue and x20.5 for EBITDA (40% margin seems reasonable in the telcos industry). Pretty strong figures - AT&T trades at 5xEBITDA - but not excessive. They might have chosen the bear/base case for the IPO pricing given i) the IPOs of tech companies that got delayed over the last months ii) their unique situation as a pure API player - they're the only one out there with that positioning
1 comments
mbesto 3645 days ago
> and x20.5 for EBITDA (40% margin seems reasonable in the telcos industry)

There EBITDA appears to be negative. 40% margin is "Gross margin" and is certainly not a valid EBITDA figure.

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ProfChronos 3644 days ago
40% is a valid EBITDA margin for telcos. Twilio is indeed slightly negative in terms of adjusted EBITDA (around -5%) but market cap of tech companies is usually rather based on NTM EBITDA or industry average EBITDA - see prospectus of IPOs
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mbesto 3644 days ago
> market cap of tech companies is usually rather based on NTM EBITDA

This is almost entirely false.

> 40% is a valid EBITDA margin for telcos

Uh what? I didn't state that 40% wasn't valid. I simply stated that gross margin != EBITDA.

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