[xyience]

There are historical examples of discontinuities, though I don't think the FOOM debate will be settled soon. It may be quite a while before we even get to "dumb AGI", but the hardest part of that is the G part. Right now "they don't work" is indistinguishable from "they don't exist", but if we get that G, I don't see how you could claim either. From there, even if we suppose it's another huge leap to get to true super-intelligence instead of a FOOM, the time to get to merely smart AGI, and indeed smarter-than-human AGI, would be short, if only for the basic advantages of a silicon machine substrate. If all we had were human brains running on silicon even, that would be enough to quickly reach superhuman general intelligence, even if not true super- (or perhaps ultra- as I.G. Good originally put it) intelligence that we expect for a Singularity event.

[argonaut]

This makes no sense. This is just unsubstantiated speculation right now. There is no reason to believe that dumb AGI will hardware-scale to smart AGI for free. In fact most machine learning algorithms have diminishing (logarithmic) returns with data and compute.