[modeless]

So in exchange for giving a hedge fund a stock tip that earns 20% in a month, the guy gets $10k? That sounds like a ripoff to me! If you have the skills to do that repeatedly you can make a whole lot more than $10k doing the trades yourself.

[onion2k]

The point is that you probably can't do it repeatedly, or predict with any confidence that you can even do it once. Numerai enables you to bet using someone else's money, with a vastly reduced reward, but no risk to you.

Numerai won this time (hence the PR piece) but I don't think we should judge their performance on one action in isolation. We should judge whether their approach works based on a year or two of trading on these predictions. Maybe longer, if reacting to unusual events (economic collapse, freak speculation on tulips, etc) is something you care about.

[mrkgnao]

Plus, Numerai gives them opaque features for ML training that correspond to real-life data in ways that only Numerai knows. So you can't bail and use your model on your own.

[agorabinary]

Well if you have $50k capital then 20% gains = $10k is about fair. Luckily for numerai they have $1mil capital so the rewards are a bit higher...

[oneloop]

You know they have $1m, or are you guessing? References please?