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by snemvalts
3655 days ago
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We're far from emulating networks on the scale of the visual cortex, let alone a self-reasoning machine (we don't even fully understand consciousness and inner workings of the brain). People fearing strong-AI are the ones not involved in the field, yet all this hype/fear from them (in combination with Moore's law ending) is probably going to cause another AI winter. |
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>We're far from emulating networks on the scale of the visual cortex
In 2009 (ish) computer vision was a joke that could recognize very few objects a small percent of the time. Based on only simple color and texture, and sometimes basic shapes.
A few years later and computers were excelling at computer vision recognizing a majority of objects. A year or two after that, and they started to beat humans on those tasks. We already have super-human visual cortexes. Who knows what will be possible in a decade.
We will probably never understand the inner workings of the brain. Not because it's complicated, just because reverse engineering microscopic systems is really hard (imagine trying to reverse engineer a modern CPU vs merely designing one.) Especially hard because we can't ethically dissect living humans and do the experiments we would need to do.
But that's no concern, AI advances on from first principles. AI researchers invent better and better algorithms every day, without having a clue what neuroscientists are up to.
>People fearing strong-AI are the ones not involved in the field,
That's just incorrect. A survey of AI researchers found they give about a third chance AI will turn out badly for humanity in the next century: http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf
>We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts in 2012/2013. The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that highlevel machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075. Experts expect that systems will move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. They estimate the chance is about one in three that this development turns out to be ‘bad’ or ‘extremely bad’ for humanity.
>in combination with Moore's law ending
Computers can advanced a long time after Moore's law. Google just released a special neural network chip that is equivalent to 7 years worth Moore's law. 3d architectures can vastly increase the number of transistors. Better algorithms can make NN's that require many fewer transistors to do computations, or even do cheap analog computations.