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by penguinduck
3654 days ago
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Are you sure the compression rate will be higher than what humans have experienced previously? We've had steam power, electricity, computers (and I probably forgot something). Those were all pretty big. The current big thing is AI. What reason is there to believe that AI will have a stronger effect than those have had? So far, it hasn't had a particularly strong effect. Automating jobs in various fields is not going to be a 2-year process. It will take decades. So the rate might not actually be that high. And about your Foxconn example: if you look here [1] you will see why they were able to do that. Notice the vast disparity in employee numbers between them and, for example, Samsung. It is likely that Foxconn is far behind the industry when it comes to automation (probably due to access to cheap Chinese labor), and when you're behind, it's easy to make such big leaps. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_informatio... |
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from wikipedia, there were working industrial steam engines in 1712. The railway system in the US was started in about 1827 (over a hundred years later), and completed around 1900, about two hundred years after the technology was introduced it was useable by business owners and passengers.
Edison showed the first working electric light in 1878, it seems most people had electricity of some kind by the 1930's.
We could say personal computers were invented sometime in the 1970s, and maybe by today-ish the majority of people in the US have a computer of some kind (though that may be becoming more smartphones than computers)
I would say theres a pretty distinct trend of technology getting adapted more quickly at scale over time.
Do you honestly think the market capture rate of self driving trucks will be similar to that of steam powered engines and boats?