[pmontra]

If they have data for the last 10 years they could use the model to predict thousands of games. That would start to be statistically significant for anybody.

However, I'm no statistician myself too but if the goal is to predict only 12 results how do we evaluate the predictions of the model? There should be a difference between 0 and 12 successes.

[pmontra]

They are 5-2 after the first 3 days. The first game was a draw (72%-28%) and the third one a win for Wales (39%-61%). Two days and five games to go.