[mlla]

Have you had any chance to compare your player strength values against other models to check how well they are aligned? You can find from Premier League's web site "Player Performance Index", e.g. for last season the top three players according to PL PPI were Harry Kane, Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy.

Another obvious question is that have you checked your model against the odds on betting sites that provide "Draw-no-bet" bets since you are not yet taking into account draws?