[riffraff]

interesting, the model seems very slightly confident that italy will win against belgium, even though it recently lost 3-1, and most rankings put the belgians ahead, and gut feelings say that italy's current team kinda sucks.

I really hope your model is right :)

EDIT: could it be you are underestimating the weight of player age?

[vicow]

We are not considering the player's age as a feature at all actually.

Concerning the predictions, they depend on the starting 11 for each team. We took the most recent ones, i.e. during the last friendlies, which are probably not the ones that will actually start the game!