[lum]

Thanks a lot for the comments!

- about friendly games: agreed, in the future we'd like to downweight them (as well as downweight older games over newer ones)

- about substitutions: at training time, we look at the number of minutes each player has spent on the field. At test time, we assume there will be no substitution. Could certainly be improved :-)

- about teams that are already qualified: true, our model does not encode all these contextual factors, and arguably they are very important for certain games. If the lineup changes (e.g. star players resting) it does impact the prediction.