[antouank]

The thing is that football is a time based sport, so draw is an outcome with pretty good chances. Usually weak teams will try to delay as much as they can to get the draw. Given enough time, the strong team would have much bigger chances to win. Also, depending on the context ( points needed for each time ) a team might have bigger motive to go for a draw than a win.

Predicting outcome possibility in football is a very complicated story, I doubt it can be solved in a simple way like elo ranking the players or teams.

That said, the knock-out phase might be more suitable for that model.

Kudos for the effort anyway, and nice UI.