[lum]

Yes, for now we only predict win / lose. It is fairly reasonable to assume that draws are more likely to arise if the winning probabilities are close to 50/50 (and less likely if there is a big difference) - but you are also right that there are some contextual factors that influence this.

You know the saying, "all models are wrong, but some are useful" - our model is clearly too simple to encode many of these complex patterns, but we believe that's alright!