[ZenoArrow]

> "Honest question: when has the future not been uncertain? When times were good? I'm guessing that the collective outlook about the future has a lot to do with current conditions, which is counterintuitive. If current conditions are worse, aren't they likely to get better? Likewise, if conditions are fantastic, don't they have a greater chance of getting worse? That is, of course, assuming that there is some equilibrium we hover around, which history has suggested."

We were never able to predict the future with great accuracy, however the rate of technological change and societal change is faster today than it's been for a long time. We've already gone through a period of rapid change in the 20th century, if you compare life in 1900 with 1999 you can see that our society changed radically. The pace of technological change and societal change is not slowing down, along with increasing activity in AI, VR and synthetic biology which all have the potential to alter our society drastically, we will also have to address considerable challenges with climate change and the knock on effects on the lifecycles of the earth, political instability, economic instability, superbugs, etc...

Those are just the challenges we know about today. What we'll be facing in 20 years we do not know. However, with the challenges we face today the outcomes are too hard to predict, and aside from WW1 and WW2 all are potentially greater than the challenges we faced in the 20th century.

[marknutter]

I think you need to review your history. After WW2 people were literally so worried about nuclear annihilation of the planet they ran weekly air raid drills in schools. Then it was the economic recession and malaise of the 70s. Then it was the rise of the powerful Japanese economy and the threat of globalization. Before WW2, well.. shit was way, way worse for most people in the world, and it just got worse the farther back you go. I really don't think increasing activity in AI and VR are going to threaten our security or way of lives in as significant a way as fascism or nuclear weapons did.

[ZenoArrow]

The threat of nuclear weapons is still strong. Look at North Korea, just this week we had another missile test. Thankfully it wasn't a nuclear missile, and the launch failed, but the intention to improve their missile capabilities is clear, and they've conducted 4 nuclear weapon tests in the last 10 years.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0YN5UU

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17823706

Considering the irrational leadership (and also considering the usefulness of North Korea to China if they ever wanted to conduct a proxy war), they pose a definite threat.

Another example is Pakistan. They're a country with clear links to Islamic fundamentalism, as well as one with nuclear weapons. The potential for something to go wrong in this situation shouldn't be underestimated, even if Pakistan doesn't launch the missiles themselves you could have a country like Saudi Arabia looking to get control over a nuclear weapon either by buying one or through underhanded means, and a desire to do so could be rationalised by the threat posed by Isreal and the US.

Lastly, we have the US. Despite rhetoric in line with nuclear disarmament, their continued military support of Isreal is pretty much the only thing blocking a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East, and Obama has started a program for a new nuclear weapons arsenal, one focused on a larger number of small weapons. The decrease in size but increase in quantity is concerning, as it implies the US way be aiming for weapons they can use strategically in war.

As for fascism, there's a very real possibility that Trump will be elected (he's currently slightly up in the polls vs Clinton, plus Clinton is under FBI investigation and could be indicted before the elections conclude). Trump is a known liar, but if he follows through with what he's claimed then he does lean towards fascism. We'll have to wait to see how things pan out after the election.

We also have other countries which oppress democratic change in their country. Whilst you couldn't call them fascist per se, I'd argue that this oppression represents one of the worst traits of what we know of fascist dictatorships.

I could go on. The point is just because those threats aren't as prominent in people's minds doesn't mean they've gone away.