[mjevans]

You're correct, I was explaining why it was /already/ a negative sum game.

I suppose the closest parallel is what I recall hearing happened to auto-insurance rates when those became mandatory.

Another close parallel would be what would happen if everyone in the San Francisco Bay Area were to suddenly receive an additional 500 USD/month housing allowance for living in the area. I would expect occupancy prices to go up by ~500 USD and the general quality of housing anyone current has to remain the same otherwise.

[eru]

Yes, pretty much.

(And incidentally, that's a great argument for replacing almost all taxes with taxes on land rent: any extra money people have left over after paying taxes etc goes to bid up housing costs. Lower taxes and you get higher housing costs. A land tax can recover the lost revenue---and it's really hard to hide land and evade the tax.)