| A model of human work: - The number of people occupied per industry is inversely proportional to the number of industries in existence. - The barrier to entry is also inversely proportional to the number of industries in existence. The process for every new industry generally goes something like this: - Stage 1: mostly makers (100%) - Stage 2: some makers (25%) + some operators of some tech that raises general efficiency (25%) (50% slowly moves to some new industry) - Stage 3: few makers (5%) + some operators (10%) + some supervisors of some autonomous tech that maximizes efficiency (10%) (25% slowly moves to some new industry) Was this process historically painless and ultra efficient? No!
Did it do the job again and again with some acceptable level of efficiency? Yes! The argument that this time is different this will stop working is getting stronger and stronger. I personally think that is not the case. With some pain that require good policy, up and downs and so on this is the way we operate, we adapt. Take prostitution (the oldest job in the world!), the next thing is robots yes, but also cam girls. Lower barrier to entry and maybe even bigger industry with lots of specialization. And next thing for cam girls? Is of course virtual cam girls but also avatar builders/modelers/players even lower barrier to entry and potentially bigger industry and so on. |