[dredmorbius]

There is an interesting rule from biological evolution of rates of extinction with species age that I'd thought of in relation to this. Essentially: they're constant. That is, a species is as likely ro go extinct when old as young: there is no increased survival probability with age.

Leigh Van Valen's Law of Extinction, related to the Red Queen Hypothesis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Queen_hypothesis

I don't know how well this translates to areas such as software, but it does give me pause.