[tazjin]

Trump and Clinton are the only remaining candidates, and Clinton is flip-flopping on the issue depending on who she's talking to.

She only recently did an anti-TPP U-turn - who knows what she stands for after being elected. Fortunately for us she won't be elected though!

[Grishnakh]

Are you kidding? It's quite likely she'll be elected. Her unfavorability rating from polls is very high, but Trump's is even higher. I'm not sure how Cruz's compared, but it's way up there too. The only guy who has a low unfavorability rating is Bernie, and it looks pretty certain that he's not getting the nomination nor running as an independent.

What's going to happen with this election is anyone's guess IMO. It could be Trump vs. Clinton, in which case Clinton will likely win (lower unfavorability). Or it could be Cruz vs. Clinton, which again probably favors Clinton (IMO, Cruz is far more dangerous than Trump, but that's my opinion). Or, we could get a brokered GOP convention and Kasich could get the nomination, and in a Kasich vs. Clinton fight, Kasich will likely win. Or, Kasich could get the nomination, Trump could run as an independent splitting the ticket, and who knows who'll win, though likely it'll again be Hillary because Trump/Kasich will split the GOP voters. Or Bernie could change his mind and run as an independent since the DNC has screwed him over so much, making a 3-way or 4-way race with a completely unpredictable outcome (though it might end up with the House of Representatives making the decision).

[tazjin]

I'm not kidding. Unfavourability ratings don't decide elections (look at some historical ratings of previous presidents).

Trump and Clinton have been tied in national polls recently (there was even an outlier showing +3 Trump) and this is before he has started attacking her and before any debates. She's going down.

[mod]

If you believe that, you should probably bet against her. The oddmakers have her as a pretty significant favorite right now.

[tazjin]

Ah yes, do you remember when Jeb! Bush was going to be the Republican nominee? Everyone was very certain about it.

[BookmarkSaver]

Yeah, before a single vote was cast. The votes are almost entirely in right now, and Sanders would need a miracle.

[dragonwriter]

> The votes are almost entirely in right now, and Sanders would need a miracle.

Its pretty unlikely that either candidate will have a sufficient number of pledged delegates. Hillary seems far ahead because of early statements of support from superdelegates, made at a time when her support numbers (both overall and within the party) were much higher, and here unfavorable ratings with the general election electorate much lower, when no one could imagine any other Democratic candidate garnering anywhere close to as much support through the primary and caucus process, and before she was roundly out fundraised by Sanders.

Now, while the media coverage of delegate counts has largely treated these superdelegate statements of support as equivalent to pledged delegates awarded through the primary and caucus process, they are not.

[mod]

You can buy Bernie for 5c.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/1232/Who-will-win-the-2016-...

If you believe he has any reasonable shot, I encourage you to put your money where your mouth is. Should be a good investment.

[mod]

Of course, I was actually talking about winning the presidency. I'm not arguing about her actual chances, nor whether I want her to win--simply stating that she's a big favorite to win it in the markets.

62% on predictit, where people are estimating with their money.

[caoilte]

> Fortunately for us she won't be elected though!

What makes you think that?

At this point I don't see a way for her to lose, unfortunately.