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This is getting pretty far off topic, but since it's one of my obsessions too, I have to reply. :) I agree we'll inevitably get to the point where the vast majority of jobs are done cheaper/better by technology (software, robots, etc.). And let's just disregard Artificial Super Intelligence for the moment, which may make this projection moot. So, how does society work when there are legitimately, structurally no jobs for, let's say, 60% of the worldwide adult population? I think the answer largely depends on how quickly our abundance rises, and a big part of that is energy. I expect/hope we'll one day discover/invent a source of energy that is nearly-free, nearly-infinite, and nearly-zero-maintenance. Now imagine this magic energy cube is relatively cheap to produce and small enough to be transported in the back of a pickup truck, my simple test for its ubiquity. At that point (free ubiquitous energy + ubiquitous automation), we'll eventually be able to feed, clothe, and house everyone for essentially free – at least at a comfortable albeit minimalistic level. So people don't have to work to survive. Many people would choose to work for the satisfaction it provides and of course the prestige and access to luxury goods. But many people might not want to work – at least not traditional jobs. Assuming virtual reality continues to improve, people might spend their days "working" in World of Warcraft (or its future equivalent) or just enjoying the expanding plethora of entertainment options. Basically, imagine everyone has access to a replicator and lives in a holodeck, to use Star Trek vernacular. Working becomes optional. I don't know. But I think the situation fundamentally changes when we have the abundance to easily support people who can't find a job or just don't want to work. The big question in my mind is whether we can start moving up the abundance curve before the impending jobs crisis. Throughout history, large numbers of unemployed adults, especially young men, has led to mass upheaval. But if we have sufficient abundance and entertainment, we might break that cycle. |