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It assumes that "80%/year" failure rate implies something like exponential decay. In this model of business, they behave something like particles decaying; the business environment might be treacherous enough that failures are due to factors that are essentially random and unmanageable. While others (and you) have pointed to the deficiencies of this model, or at least to its assumptions, it is not fallacious, per se. The presence of other models--for example, that the first year is the most treacherous because the new owner lacks experience--does not make the current model, nor conclusions drawn from it, fallacious. Indeed, the implied size of the population, "all businesses," is a warrant for some pretty strong claims. Additionally, treating a saying as data, rather than respecting the context in and modality with which it is offered is probably fallacious in itself. So, quoth the Bard, "If you're wondering how he eats and breathes/and other science facts/la la la/repeat to yourself, "It's just a show,"/"you should really just relax!" :D |