[Lanari]

You could say the same about the Arab spring, that starter in Tunisia which is smaller country and lead to several other countries taking down the reign. It was about the message: "Even if a dictator stayed decades ruling you can take him down".

And again there was the opposite message from Syria: "The reign can bomb you, and also call their allies to bomb you".

It was like a domino, leader falling after leader until Assad didn't. And no one did after.

[contingencies]

Tunisia felt legitimate. I was there (for a whole month, before and during). Libya felt pushed. Egypt and everything else felt like foreign influence had more impact than local discontent.