[pdubbs90]

I'm very glad that where she wrote "Multiply that 0.6 percent chance of getting any given job by the 10 or so appropriate positions in the entire world, and you have about that same 6 percent chance of “success.”" she was in the regime where p*n ~= 1-(1-p)^n and her conclusion was still correct.

[madcaptenor]

My PhD is in probability.

When I was applying for academic jobs upon finishing my PhD, I said to one of my professors "every time I apply for a job, I feel like I have probability epsilon of getting it".

His response: "apply for one over epsilon jobs".

I told him I wasn't willing to accept such a large probability of not getting a job...

[KKKKkkkk1]

Apparently even probability professors can fall into the trap of ignoring all but the first moment of a probability distribution.