[Tsagadai]

It is unlikely this would ever be enforceable once there are permanent settlements on the moon or elsewhere as they could always secede from the UN and any country they were once involved with. Once they claimed independence, weaponizing orbital equipment would be the only real way to displace them (which would also violate the treaty).

It is more likely to end up like The Expanse series where Mars and then the other planets claim independence from Earth.

[pjc50]

It would be foolish to declare independence before being self-supporting, which is a very long way in the future.

[avmich]

Like fully half-generation away?

It's really hard to make predictions of that sort, I think.