[pmorici]

I wouldn't put much stock in the price. Much of the original ETH was distributed in a pre-sale so there are some people out there sitting a load of it they paid pennies for. Those are probably the zealots they have a really strong incentive to pump the price. ETH itself is interesting because it is focused on things like smart contracts and they down play the currency aspect of it.

One smart thing Ethereum did was endow it's dev organization with a large share of ETH so the project will be self financing if it is successful. Bitcoin has the problem right now where some of the Bitcoin companies are trying to kill it so they can make money off their proprietary solutions and they are employing all the devs.

[pjbrunet]

With Bitcoin, the "penny people" already had a couple of chances to cash out, broadly speaking. Maybe someone will estimate, by studying the BTC transactions, how many ETH people would cash out at various price levels, given the past behavior of BTC, given an equal increase in value. So maybe 30% of early adopters sell off after a 10000x increase, and then you could try to predict when people will start to dump ETH, ceteris paribus.

[pmorici]

The way BTC was distributed initially was very different than how ETH was distributed. No BTC was ever given out that wasn't earned through mining. ETH on the other hand sold a large amount of ETH in a pre-sale. Literally all people did to get it was give money to the project's developers and they were allocated some ETH.

If you are mining you have probably invested a lot in equipment, time, and other costs to get the coins you get. With ETH there was literally no investment of anything except money.