[elevensies]

Does anyone care to speculate on the odds that the Communist Party of China loses power/control in the next 5 years? 10 years? From the other side of the world I don't have any idea how likely this is, and I never see anyone discuss it.

[studentrob]

Anything could happen but I don't see any indication. Other countries seem content with China as a cheap source of labor. The ruling party is obviously content to be in power. People aren't happy but are having trouble unifying. Protests are in pockets and always silenced thus far. I could see it happening with some technology that leveraged the internet in a manner that was unblockable and untraceable by the government. Not really sure what that'd look like though.

I'm in Taiwan and have been to China a couple times. Taiwan got lucky and a former leader installed democracy here in the late 1980s. I'm probably oversimplifying. Before that, for 80 years, the Taiwan government, which used to be in China before they fled after losing a civil war after WW II, touted democracy. But it wasn't until the late 1980s that they actually did what they said they believed in. It was a loooong process of releasing power.

[apalmer]

pretty unlikely. even the governments harshest critics wouold honestly have to agree that the general prospects of the average chinese citizen has been steadily getting better in a very palpable way. the horrible oppression and control remains but day to day is clearly getting better for many years, in those type of situations there is almost never regime change.

[joedavison]

Not very likely.

[DougN7]

After the Arab Spring, I wouldn't be surprised.

[studentrob]

What connection do you see between Arabs and Han Chinese that would make them follow suit? Also China has tight controls over its internet. They watch it very closely, and anyone attempting to circumvent these controls to promote civil disobedience is dealt with severely. They're smart and not smart at the same time. They don't crack down on people who use VPN to read news, use Facebook etc. But they will throw you in prison, and threaten you with the safety of your loved ones, if you seem to be "causing trouble" among masses. Not smart because this keeps their country weak. But that's who's in power.