First, I try not to play near the train tracks. Second, when you are known for doing your job well, you often get advance notice that a train is coming and are given an opportunity to get away from the tracks.
Sometimes, the train takes a shortcut. I was (actually quite recently) laid off from a startup that had just closed a major round of funding and moved to a larger office, making layoffs the last thing on anyone's mind. Nearly everyone who got cut was a highly visible contributor, including a very well-liked manager: I could only conclude that the cuts were purely salary-based.
Sometimes. Other times not at all, I was in the room when one team was cut over another even though every metric said they were better. The difference? Lease terms on their office.
Its possible you just are dealing with small sample size right?
Ah, the risk reduction strategy of never trying hard things. I had a roommate who had a 4.0 GPA doing the same thing; if a class looked like too much effort, he'd drop it. And then because he had a 4.0, the deans would give him permission to enroll in "overload" classes.
It's not a bad way to live, but a few career coaches I've heard talk on the matter suggest that managing a team through a corporate downturn is valuable experience for climbing up the ladders.
That is not at all what I said. In fact it's the opposite. I take on plenty challenging projects. What I don't work on is projects that are useless to the company. Geez.