[GrantS]

Interesting analysis, but after reading the FAQ at the bottom, it rests upon quite a few important hidden assumptions. For example:

>However if there is any hope of finding life on other planets, there must be a huge number of planets with life in the Universe. Therefore, for the case we're interested in...

So during the entire analysis, we were limiting ourselves only to those universes in which we do make alien contact, regardless of how likely that event is.