| This is a bit like the sleeping beauty paradox. [1] We have to be careful what we're sampling. Is it individuals or civilizations? An average civilization will be average sized. An average individual will belong to a larger-than average civilization. It's also a bit like the problem that in average, your friends have more friends than you do. (That's easy to understand. It's because they are not a really random sample of all people. People with more connections are over-represented in your friends.) If we assume that observation doesn't depend on civilization size, then we're sampling civilizations, and on average would find average sized civilizations. If we assume that we observe individuals and not civilizations, then we're sampling individuals and are likely to see individuals of a big civilization. Now, if I look at myself, if I'm a random sample from all individuals in the galaxy, it's likely that I'm part of a large civilization. That would mean other civilizations would on average be smaller than mine. If I look at my civilization, and assume it's a random sample from all the civilizations in the galaxy, it's likely that it's an average sized civilization. A random other individual in the galaxy would be likely from a larger civilization. I don't think either way of thinking is really justified. You can extend this to a doomsday argument by the way. Since I am alive now, it's most likely that most people are alive now. Hence in the past and in the future, there will be less people alive. 1:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10149286 |
Can you expand on the "waking amnesiac problem"? Google is coming up with nothing.