[mytochar]

> The low end luxury market are engineers, doctors, etc. and they will seriously consider buying a minivan or a SUV or whatever instead.

I would say this is a big "it depends". I think I'm in that low-end luxury market. I paid 36k for my car, when all is said and done. I absolutely did not consider minivans or SUVs, and for one really big reason: I don't have kids. Kids aren't even on the horizon. When I look at minivans and SUVs, I think of mobiles that, while great people movers are, generally, not very fun cars to drive (there are some amazing Mazdas and Acuras in this collection, though).

I bought a Subaru WRX, because I like the way it feels; but, I am VERY excited about this new Tesla, and I completely believe that the next car I purchase, bar getting a huge amount of money that I can choose to not be practical with, is going to be an electric card, and is also probably going to be a Tesla.

I have a friend who owns a 90k Infiniti. He prefers luxury more than I do; but, he's 100% on the Tesla bandwagon and is very excited at the prospect of owning one. He'll be one of the first in line when they announce the price.

I have another friend, similar market. He owns an Audi ... A5? S5?

Barring my infiniti-owning friend, we are people that like cars and want a little extra. We definitely do exist, and I suspect many of us will be looking very intently at that Tesla.

[ghaff]

>I absolutely did not consider minivans or SUVs, and for one really big reason

Minivans and SUVs are also handy if you do outdoor activities involving a lot of gear--including boats, etc. that go on the roof. A number of paddling friends I know actually consider minivans more practical than SUVs for this purpose.

Of course, said activities also often involve going to places where electric cars aren't practical--even if they didn't have gull-wing doors that preclude roofracks.

That said, I also have a small second vehicle. But then I paid $18K for it in 1998 or so and it's still going strong at 170K miles. (Honda Del Sol.)

[Grishnakh]

Putting a boat on the roof of a vehicle is dumb: it really kills your fuel efficiency. You can get a small trailer to put the boat on instead, and then you can get a small car with a trailer hitch to pull it (if the boat is light enough to put on the roof of a minivan, it's probably a kayak and weighs very little), which means you don't need a big, ugly, gas-guzzling minivan or SUV at all. Any small car can pull a 500-pound utility trailer.

[ghaff]

To each his own. I do know people who use trailers for sea kayaks and it can be quite a pain getting into tight quarters. So putting boats on the roof may be dumb but it's what 98% of the people I know with boats do.

[FireBeyond]

Let's face it - most _garages_ these day preclude gull wing doors.

[fweespee_ch]

> Barring my infiniti-owning friend, we are people that like cars and want a little extra. We definitely do exist, and I suspect many of us will be looking very intently at that Tesla.

Yes but is there 175k every year such as the article implies? I'm skeptical.

I can believe there is going to be 100k in sales but that isn't a market dominating product. I could even see it hitting 200k that first year due to pent up demand but it won't sustain it.

[mytochar]

I don't know. I wrote up a longer comment; but, when I was typing it up, I realized that I don't know, I don't even have the beginning of an idea.

I think the BMW 3-series will hold it's buyers pretty well, though. There's just something, especially in the tech community, about owning a BMW 3-series. They might as well be the Toyota Corolla of some parking lots I've seen.

[fweespee_ch]

> I don't know. I wrote up a longer comment; but, when I was typing it up, I realized that I don't know, I don't even have the beginning of an idea.

That is all I was trying to say really. The article doesn't know either and you can't extrapolate markets like that.