[patrickk]

> not someone that caught a once-in-a-lifetime tidal wave.

Those often celebrated in the media as whiz kids or geniuses often do just that.

In addition, even if you are a "legitimate" business/founder, there is still a massive amount of luck, way beyond your control. Imagine for example if Elon Musk had founded X.com slightly later that he did - probably wouldn't have the funds or track record to do Tesla and SpaceX due to the lack of exit opportunities with PayPal. Or if Paul Graham had founded ViaWeb slightly later, perhaps no YC.

[over]

At the very least I think Musk would have been a good engineer, and PG would be inspiring young people to try.

[patrickk]

Most likely, and I think both would've been successful regardless. But their success and impact would've likely been greatly diminished if they were not in the right place and right time before the dotcom bubble popped.