[JulianMorrison]

You can look at the past for that, although obviously it doesn't predict the future. But it ought to be a priori obvious, at least, that the more you know (as a species), the more surface area of knowledge you have to synthesize into an extending step beyond the known.

[ska]

You could look at the past, but that isn't what the claim did.

In fact looking at the rate of change in applications over an "epiphany" period is probably the least useful estimate of progress & rate of change in progress.