Ask HN: If a previous startup failed with your same idea, is that a bad sign?

[johndoe786]

The app we are currently wanting to develop has competitors, but none of them have any traction on the app store. Hardly any downloads or reviews.

Is this a sign that no one wants this type of app or is this a sign that they failed due to not enough people knowing it exists (bad marketing)?

Also, what percent of a startups (let's say app company) success is reliant on marketing?

[skyyler]

> Is this a sign that no one wants this type of app or is this a sign that they failed due to not enough people knowing it exists (bad marketing)?

You tell us. This is your niche, you should get to know it better than any of us do. Use the apps, see if they have issues. See if there is interest for a better app than what currently exists.

[jeffmould]

Was about to say almost the same thing. Without knowing the market, the app, the competition, the question can't be answered correctly. However, I would not take that one or two apps failed as a definitive sign there is no market. There could have been other forces at play such as timing, budget, quality of app, marketing, etc.. that all resulted in their failure.

As for the second question as to what percent of an app startup's success is tied to marketing? The answer would be 100%. That marketing can be as simple as telling your circle of friends and convincing them to tell their friends, but it has to start somewhere. A basic website, reaching out to bloggers/reporters, telling friends and family, that is all marketing. Without some form of marketing it will never succeed because nobody will ever hear about your app.

[evm9]

There are many, many reasons that a startup may have failed (or is failing) and there still may be a product-market fit.

Some products & markets require you to go out and get users more than others, and they may not have done that.

It's on a case by case basis, just be sure to get validation for your project. Make sure that you're making something people actually want, and if they want it, how much they will pay for it. Can't stress it enough how important it is to go out and talk to potential customers, ideally hundreds, and figure out if they'll pay and tell their friends about it.

Marketing is important -- having a good landing/marketing page, getting press, etc. But at the end of the day the product is what will create retention. Looks get the first date, but your personality is what will get you the 8th date.

[Mz]

We can't really answer this question for you. You might spend some time reading startup post mortems. They typically include some analysis. Then, in cases where they get real discussion here, read the discussion. Don't assume that the people who failed know all the reasons they failed.

Edison made thousands of light bulbs that didn't work before finally making one that did work. There are a great many ways to fail. Their failure does not necessarily indicate anything about the odds of your product. It depends on a great many factors. Given that you have not linked to your thing or theirs and haven't even told us generally what you are making, this question is just way too vague. And perhaps that is part of your problem generally.

[rl3]

>Also, what percent of a startups (let's say app company) success is reliant on marketing?

This really depends on the vertical. Generally speaking, the less reliant on paid marketing you are, the better. Truly excellent apps market themselves. If you're entering into a niche vertical however, having to deal with marketing will probably be an unavoidable fact of life.

As far as competitors, it's almost always a bad idea to fret over the competition even if they're established. In this case they clearly aren't, so your only worry is whether to take heed of the fact that all of your potential competitors are basically dead on arrival.

As the other comments say, this really boils down to your judgement. Check out the other apps yourself, see how similar they are to your own execution ideas. If they're identical, you may have a problem.

[bobby_9x]

I think the bigger issue is just relying on an app. Most apps are a few dollars. You will not be able to sustain a steady paycheck with this kind of business model.

Apps should be a freebie (not literally free in all cases, but cheap) that is merely a hook/marketing channel for your business.

[ironmantra]

Does your app do something useful or is it a game? If it does something useful, do you or your company find it useful? Do you use it? Have you found earlyvangelists? Why do they like your product better than the competition? I put together this free risk calculator http://stts.us/StartupRiskCalculator that asks you to rate 9 strategic risk factors. The accompanying article explains each in more detail. The above questions focus on the first and most important factor, but the other 8 may be of use as well.