[Spooky23]

IMO, people are starting to flip against globalization more than in the past, and in places like India as well. In the US, the rise of Trump & Bernie are a good example of people having enough with the mainstream political schtick.

That threatens China's role as factory to the world, and the cracks that are developing drives more repressive behavior.

[0xffff2]

What does "flip against globalization" actually mean? Unless people are suddenly preferring domestically produced goods over imports in statistically significant numbers, I don't see globalization slowing down any time soon.

[rm_-rf_slash]

Thomas Jefferson imposed heavy tariffs on imports. This was horrible for the (new) American consumer and raised prices significantly on manufactured goods.

Because people still wanted things like teacups and saucers and clothing, New England began to manufacture those same items within the country, and the rest is history.

Same thing could happen again. If something is too expensive to import, we'll just make our own.

[0xffff2]

And that worked in the 18th century, but how high would the tariffs have to be to make it economically feasible to manufacture an iPhone in the US? How much would that iPhone cost? I wouldn't be surprised if the answer put iPhones beyond the reach of the vast majority of Americans.

I don't doubt that new wide-ranging tariffs would increase American manufacturing (although we still make a lot of stuff in the US as it is), but I wonder if it wouldn't also lead to a measurable reduction in the American standard of living.

[rm_-rf_slash]

We don't have to manufacture everything here. It makes sense to do microelectronics in China because of factory network effects. Need a widget? My buddy at the factory down the road can ship you a million by Friday.

But we can manufacture textiles, plastics, metals, and so much more that we grow, extract, and refine here. The only reason China is so competitive is because of ridiculous energy subsidies and an artificially weak currency compared with the US dollar, which is also being artificially strengthened as a generally weak global economy seeks refuge in reserve currencies.

I dress well. I am currently wearing a designer shirt made in Pennsylvania. It cost me about 20% more than designer shirts made in China. If all shirts of similar quality were raised to that price due to tariffs, it would only marginally affect my buying habits.

A $120 price tag is not a big deterrent for someone who buys similar shirts for $100. I just want to look good. And right now, I do.

[lordCarbonFiber]

Just on the off chance you're not just trolling and actually believe what you're saying about tariffs. There's a strong reason why the only people arguing for them are populist candidates without any economical backing. I'd suggesting reading on the history, and effects of the Smoot Hawley Tariff in the 1930s.

The general accepted wisdom is you don't want your economy regressing back to being built on low skill manufacturing jobs. Nor do you want your trading partners to inact retaliatory tariffs. Im sure the Americans buying the 10 dollar shirts will tend to be more upset at price increase. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Ac...

[Spooky23]

Politics isn't economics. Economists want efficient markets, and government exiats to protect the general welfare of the people.

[Spooky23]

India: http://m.ndtv.com/india-news/fdi-is-first-develop-india-pm-m...

US: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/us-china-trade-reform

Europe: http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=62990

[0xffff2]

Did you really just link a campaign position from Donald Trump of all people as evidence against globalization? Do you have any evidence of an actual shift away from globalization? Trump can talk himself to death, but that doesn't mean that we are actually doing anything to reduce our reliance on China or any other country.

[Spooky23]

Guess what, those flyover people whose jobs have been rendered redundant by outsourcing to China and automation using cheap imported technology vote.

Bernie Sanders has a different variation on a similar message. Voters love it.