[argonaut]

Some experts in Go less than 10 years ago believed it would be accomplished within 10 years. Also, you didn't actually refute his argument. Can you point to an algorithm that is not an incremental improvement over algorithms that existed 10 years ago? MCTS and reinforcement learning with function approximators definitely existed 20 years ago.

[kqr]

No, that's what they're saying. Take any invention and you can break it down into just a slight improvement of the sub-inventions it consists of.

A light bulb is just a metal wire encased in a non-flammable gas and you run electricity through it. It was long known that things get hot when you run electricity through them, and that hot things burst into fire, and that you can prevent fire by removing oxygen, and that glass is transparent. It's not a big deal to combine these components. A lot of people still celebrate it as a great invention, and in my opinion it is! Think about how inconvenient gas lighting is and how much better electrical light is.

Same thing with AlphaGo. Sure, if you break it down to its subcomponents it's just clever application of previously known techniques, like any other invention. But it's the result that makes it cool, not how they arrived at it!

All algorithms are incremental improvements of existing techniques. This isn't a card you can use to diminish all progress as "just a minor improvement what's the fuss".

[argonaut]

No, not all inventions are incremental improvements of existing techniques. Backpropagation and convolutional nets, for example. Now, you might counter with the fact that it's just the chain rule (and convolution existed before that), but the point is it that algorithm had never been used in machine learning before.

People have used neural nets as function approximators for reinforcement learning with MCTS for game playing well before AlphaGo (!!).

Your lightbulb example actually supports my point. The lightbulb was the product of more than a half-century of work by hundreds of engineers/scientists. I have no problem with pointing to 70 years of work as a breakthrough invention.